It is that time of year again, the 2013
RBS Six Nations kicks off tomorrow and team captains have stressed the
importance of getting off to a good start. Momentum as in any tournament is crucial
- starting with a victory builds confidence and gets the press on-side. A loss
can de-rail a side’s ambitions even before the tournament is in full-flow.
England
It
is hard to believe that Stuart Lancaster has only been in charge of the
national side for a year, the former Leeds coach has flourished in the role. His
focus on a strong squad work-ethic and commitment to blooding young players has
seen 17 newly-capped players turn out for England over the past year. Lancaster
memorably guided England to 2nd place in last year’s tournament. His
highlights to date include beating France (24-22) in Paris last season and the
memorable victory (38-21) against the reigning World Champions New Zealand at
Twickenham in November.
Philippe
Saint-Andre, the French national team coach has suggested that the ‘Red Rose’ are
favourites to win this year’s Six Nations championship. The side has found a
way of winning games effectively with a solid set-piece and the ever reliable
boot of Owen Farrell. However, in the match against New Zealand, England
stepped up their game and found an attacking prowess that has been unseen at
Twickenham for years. Manu Tuilagi and Brad Barritt proved they are not just tackling
machines as they offloaded and timed their passes to great effect. With Tuilagi
injured, Billy Twelvetrees gets the opportunity to put his excellent club form
with Gloucester into practice on the international stage. The former Leicester
centre offers an excellent distributive option, while not compromising on
physicality in defence. The back row and the back-three are the most
competitive positions this season, highlighted by Ben Foden’s omission for the
Scotland game. Mike Brown, Chris Ashton and Alex Goode make up an exciting
counter-attacking combination; any inaccurate clearance kicks in the tournament
will be punished. In the back row, Chris Robshaw is prospering as captain,
while Tom Wood’s substitute performances in the autumn has earned him a re-call
to the blind-side flank. Battering ram Ben Morgan retains the No.8 shirt; his
direct, powerful running and ability to offload in the tackle provide a genuine
attacking threat.
Prediction:
Champions on points difference.
Playing the French at home gives England a huge advantage and I expect them to
win 4 matches. Owen Farrell can’t miss from the kicking tee, and Lancaster has
developed some attacking guile, which will see England cross the try line more
often than compared to last season’s tournament.
France
French
international rugby seems to be heading back in the right direction after a
promising autumn international period - a commanding 33-6 win against the
Wallabies and an assured performance in the 39-22 victory against a revitalised
Argentinian side. Confidence is high amongst Philippe Saint Andre’s squad and
les Bleus have the chance to claim a first win against Italy in Rome. The
French have been embarrassed by the Italians in recent years, however, the
set-piece will be able to match the famous Italian scrum’s prowess and with the
likes of Wesley Fofana and Yoann Huget, they have the strike power to spoil the
party at the Stadio Olimpico. Frederick Michalak has been in fine form for
Toulon, who are currently top of the top of the Top 14. His international form
has been inconsistent; however, he has earned a re-call to the No.10 shirt.
Normally, the former Toulouse playmaker operates at scrum-half, but the ageless
Jonny Wilkinson occupies the fly-half starting role. A very creative player,
who always looks to attack, however, he has been questioned in defence and for
his decision making.
The
French pack is one of the most physical and aggressive in the tournament, in
the front-row, Nicolas Mas is one of the game’s strongest scrummagers; the
Perpignan prop doesn’t give an inch in the set-piece and is a destructive ball
carrier in the loose. Behind him in the engine room are Yoann Maestri and
Pascal Pape, two very impressive line-out operators, who also offer a lot of
power in the scrum. Maestri weighs in at a staggering 18 stone 10 lbs. this
strong centre of the scrum will overpower most sides in the tournament. The
French are always known for their back row’s competitive nature at the
breakdown. With the Toulousain combination of Thierry Dusetoir and Louis
Picamoles, they will be looking to scavenge lose ball and chop down any
attackers running down their channel.
Prediction: 2nd on points difference,
on balance the trip to Twickenham should decide the outcome in the tournament.
The French have some very exciting players coming through and unquestionable
experience, but do they have enough to win their first Six Nations since the
2010 Grand Slam?
Ireland
Very
few pundits are talking about the Irish as potential Six Nations champions;
however, this could be an advantage to Declan Kidney’s men. The 2009 Grand Slam
champions have two fantastic options at fly half in Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O’Gara.
Sexton has recently signed a lucrative deal with Racing Metro; however, his
focus for now will be to guide his national side to victory. Both fly halves
are shrewd rugby players who know when to up the tempo and when to kick for
territory. Outside them, lies the experienced combination of Gordan D’Arcy and
Brian O’Driscoll. Both are warriors in defence and O’Driscoll still holds the
try-scoring record in the tournament, having crossed the line 25 times. Craig
Gilroy (Ulster) and Simon Zebo (Munster) are two thrilling young talents, who hope
to make a name for themselves at the international level after impressing in
the Rabo Direct this season. The youngsters out on the wings are backed up by
Rob Kearney at full back, the British and Irish Lion has a reliable kicking
game and will be a useful last line of defence for Ireland.
The
Irish pack is without talisman Paul O’Connell who misses out due to a back injury;
however, they boast strength-in-depth in the second row with Donnacha Ryan, and
Mike McCarthy claiming the starting berths leaving the highly experienced line-out
guru Donncha O’Callaghan on the bench against Wales in Cardiff. Another player
who misses out due to injury is Stephen Ferris, the Ulster flankers, however,
the Irish have an abundance of riches in the back-row, with Sean O’Brien and
captain Jamie Heaslip both strong ball carriers from the base of the scrum and
great scavengers at the breakdown.
Prediction:
3rd sides should not
underestimate the Irish, who can play very expansive rugby at the right time.
However, France and England’s defence is more disciplined and I think the Irish
will lose to France at home in Round 4.
Italy
Sadly
the Italians are wooden spoon contenders year-in-year-out. While there are a
few stand-out players in the squad, they do not have the opportunity to play
together as often as the other Six Nations sides. Added to this is the harsh
reality that the two Italian sides in the Rabo Direct Pro 12 -Zebre and Treviso
are underfunded and tend to be the ‘whipping boys’ on a weekly basis. However,
the Italians have produced some wonderful upsets in Six Nations history, most
recently in the 2011/12 Six Nations, in Rome when they beat France 22-21.
Traditionally, the ‘Azzurri’ has an impressive, physical pack; however, the
Italians have struggled to find a marshalling fly-half and a reliable
goal-kicker for many years. Martin Castrogiovanni is still one of the best
tight-head props in the World; however, he has spent much of this season on the
bench with Leicester due to Dan Cole’s impressive form. Sergio Parisse is
consistently one of the best performers in the Six Nations despite being on the
losing side more often than he would like. Often, the Stade Français powerhouse
is the heart of Italy’s dynamism; hopefully he can inspire his teammates to
reach new levels this season. Elsewhere in the forwards, Italy seems light in
terms of ability, but not in terms of size and power.
Andrea
Masi is a thrilling counter-attacking winger/full back. He has rejuvenated his
career of late following a move to London Wasps who are on the up in the Aviva
Premiership. He provides plenty of experience and nous to the Italian back
line. Elsewhere in the backs, the Italians have good club men, but no one of
real international class to match up to the quality of opposition they will
face. Few are expecting miracles for the Italians
this season, however unlikely it may be, two victories in this season’s
competition would be a real step forward.
Prediction: 6th I think Italy could run Scotland
close at Murrayfield; however, it is hard to see the ‘Azzurri’ picking up any
other away victories. Also home games against France and Ireland will most
likely prove fruitless.
Scotland
The
Scots have a new management team with Scott Johnson and Dean Ryan teaming up to
try and restore credibility to the Scottish game after an embarrassing autumn
international defeat against Tonga (15-21). Undoubtedly, Johnson’s side will go
back to basics, focusing on the set piece and physicality in the contact area.
The first game against England is one that will require few words to inspire
players in the changing room beforehand. The Calcutta Cup matches are
traditionally very close, with most games decided by 7 points or less. The side
in transition face testing away trips to Twickenham and the Stade de France in
this year’s competition, with little expectation on their shoulders, can the
Scots fight back and establish themselves once again as a competitive outfit in
the tournament?
Troublingly,
the Scots struggle to score tries, they are capable of holding on to possession
in the right areas of the pitch, however, they struggle to execute their
chances and cross the try line. This is surprising given the finishing talent
of Tim Visser and Sean Lamont. Sean Maitland is set to make his debut against England;
the former Crusaders speedster is a dangerous man going forward with excellent
footwork and a nimble turn of pace. Cousin to Australian playmaker Quade
Cooper, the winger has turned out for the New Zealand Maori; however, his
Scottish grandparents make him an eligible Scottish international. Ruaridh
Jackson has matured and rightfully kept the No.10 shirt for Ulster this season,
it will be exciting to see him go up against another young talent in Owen
Farrell at Twickenham. The pack will be
as thuggish as ever with the bulk of Jim Hamilton and Richie Gray in the second
row, backed up by Alisdair Strokosch, Kelly Brown and Johnnie Beattie in the
back-row. The Scots will always play with passion and vigour, if they wish to
make any inroads in the competition, their forwards have to keep the side on
the front foot and they have to finish the few chances that come their way.
Prediction:
5th it is always
difficult to predict how a side in transition will perform, but given Scotland’s
form over the past year or so with a similar squad it is difficult to see them
winning many matches. They should beat Italy at home and may have a chance at
sneaking a victory over Wales at Murrayfield if it comes down to a kicking duel
on a wet afternoon in Edinburgh.
Wales
The
Welsh are plagued with a long injury list, mostly affecting their pack
including Huw Bennett, Luke Charteris, Bradley Davies, Ryan Jones and Dan
Lydiate just to name a few . However, these injuries give several unlikely
candidates the chance to represent Wales at the highest level. Andrew Coombs,
the Newport Dragons second-row is set to make his debut against Ireland, while
Olly Kohn, the Harlequins Premiership veteran gets a call up to the squad. The
31-year-old is the shock call-up in this year’s tournament. The Welsh have not
won a game since beating the Barbarians 30-21 in June. Last year’s champions
have a lot to prove after a disappointing autumn international series, in which
they threw away leads in the final phases of games. The back-line boasts several
likely British and Irish Lions this summer for the tour in Australia. Lee
Halfpenny has become a reliable long-distance goal kicker and an elusive runner
in attack. In their short international careers to date, Alex Cuthbert and
George North have demonstrated a cut throat ability to find the try-line, their
work-rate around the pitch is phenomenal, and their running lines are world
class for wingers of their age and experience.
Dan
Biggar and James Hook have been competing for the No.10 shirt, with Biggar
given the chance to stake his claim for the starting berth on a regular basis.
Hook has been in fine form for Perpignan, but he takes his place on the bench
for the first match against Ireland, able to come on at fly-half, centre or
full-back, his versatility could be very useful and he is certainly a
game-changer. The Welsh second-row is a
little weak compared to normal, due to injuries; however, the front-row is
exceptional. With Gethin Jenkins, Mathew Rees and Adam Jones, the destructive scrummaging
capability is there. The Welsh struggle in the set-piece without either Jenkins
or Jones, so they will be hoping to stay fit for the entirety of the
tournament. Sam Warburton captains the side again; he is a fantastic
out-and-out 7 and will be hoping to book his ticket for the Lions tour with an
impressive performance in this year’s tournament. Toby Faletau is one of the
hardest working Welsh players, his tackle-rate and carries across the gain-line
are outstanding, he makes the hard yards and chops down players at will.
Prediction:
4th with a long injury
list mainly in the forwards at the start of the tournament, which is only
likely to get longer, it is hard to see Wales being as competitive as last
year. Their backs may be some of the most exciting prospects in the northern
hemisphere, but if they can’t operate from a solid platform provided by the
forwards, they will not be as effective as they can be.
Prediction
for the 2013 RBS Six Nations
1. England
2. France
3. Ireland
4. Wales
5. Scotland
6. Italy
My
individual player predictions for the tournament:
Top
Try-Scorer Wesley Fofana (France)
Top
Points Scorer Owen Farrell (England)
Have you got any thoughts or comments?
Who do you think will win the 2013 RBS Six Nations? Comment below or tweet me
@tommyd91
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