Champagne moment: London Welsh celebrate promotion at the end of last season. Can they avoid the drop at the end of this season?
After
12 tough rounds of Premiership rugby and the turn of the New Year, Worcester,
London Welsh, London Irish and the Sale Sharks find themselves struggling at
the bottom of the table. With ten matches left in the regular season, each set
of coaches will pass on the old cliché that ‘it is all to play for’ or ‘we will
take it one game at a time’. This article will look at how each of the aforementioned
teams wound up at the bottom of the pile and asses their chances at staying up
in the top league of English rugby.
Worcester
Warriors 9th (W4 D1 L7 – Pts 25)
Richard Hill’s
men have been sitting fairly comfortably in the table this season. They nearly
caused a big upset against league leaders Harlequins at the Stoop at the end of
November, narrowly losing 22-19. Also, they gave the Northampton Saints a
fright at Franklins Gardens in an enthralling 37-31 loss. Home victories over
relegation candidates London Irish and Sale Sharks have kept the Warriors just
above the real danger zone. Andy Goode at 32 years of age is providing his side
with very reliable kicking off the tee and his unrivalled experience allows the
97kg fly half to guide his team to losing bonus points which keep the league
table points ticking over. David Lemi is
still an elusive threat in attack, having managed to weave his way to the line
four times this season. Having acquired former England and British and Irish
Lions defence coach Phil Larder, the Midlands outfit look more assured without
the ball and should be a pretty certain to avoid the drop.
Verdict – Safe from relegation, Worcester are
used to the media-circus that follows a relegation battle and their experienced
players including Andy Goode, Shaun
Perry and Craig Gillies should help the Warriors from falling in to the abyss.
If the Warriors can maintain a good home record this season, they could sneak
up on any stalling mid-table sides. Heineken Cup qualification is still another
season or more away, and depends on recruitment for next season.
London
Welsh 10th (W4 L8 – Pts 20)
The Premiership newbies picked up promising
back-to-back victories against Exeter and Sale in September. This was an
impressive turnaround after heavy defeats to Leicester and Harlequins in the
opening two rounds of the league. It showed a determination not to cave in and
to become the ‘whipping boys’ of the competition. Losing bonus points have been
won via the boot of former Scottish international Gordon Ross, who is the 4th
top point scorer in the season to date with 108. Early large defeats aside, the
Exiles have been in some tight encounters, and only late surges from mid-table
sides have robbed them of unlikely victories. The worry is that the Welsh do
not create enough try-scoring chances compared to the other relegation
candidates and rely too heavily on kicking penalties for victories. Also, with a lower budget at their disposal
compared to the rest of the league, injuries will test their strength in depth
and this could cost them their premiership survival.
Verdict
– Relegated,
London Welsh face Harlequins at Home and Leicester away in the next two rounds
of Premiership action and they are unlikely to come away with any points. The
pressure will be ramped-up in round 15 when they take on the Sale Sharks at the
Kassam Stadium in a potential relegation decider. The Exiles also face tough
weeks in rounds 17 and 18 as they take on both Saracens and Gloucester away. The
side’s lack of experience in a relegation battle could also cost them their
place in next year’s competition.
London
Irish 11th (W2 L10 –Pts12)
Irish have struggled with a mass player exodus
over the past two seasons having lost influential game changers including the
Armitage brothers, Nick Kennedy and Paul Hodgson. However, nobody expected Brian
Smith’s side to be right at the heart of the relegation battle. It is bizarre
that player-retention has become an issue given that only in 2009; Irish were Premiership
finalists, narrowly beaten 10-9 by Leicester. Their only Premiership victories so
far this season came against Bath (29-22) and Northampton (39-17). This is surprising
given that talents such as Jonathan Joseph, Marland Yarde and Tom Homer have
began to blossom over the past year. The Irish are a bogey side for many teams,
with enthusiastic young backs at their disposal, no team should underestimate
them, and they certainly have more try-scoring threat than London Welsh. However,
crucially this is yet to come to fruition. Many pundits empathise with Irish
because they think something hasn't clicked yet. However, something has to
happen soon, or it will be too late. With Gloucester away and Saracens at home
in the next two rounds and Leicester waiting for them in the last round of the
season, Irish need to at least make sure they win their home encounters with
Sale, London Welsh and Worcester and pick up as many losing bonus points as
possible to try and survive.
Verdict-
Safe, a dreadful first half of the season, but
Irish have enough home games against sides from the bottom half of the table to
see them through. As the pitches get firmer as we move out of the tough, wet
winter, their young fliers will get their chance to prosper and rescue their club.
Sale
Sharks 12th (W2 L10 –Pts11)
Sale’s summer of change seems to have done
the North-West club no good at all, they went from finishing 6th in
the League last season to 12th at the turn of this year. With a new
stadium, shared with the Salford City Reds, a new Director of Rugby in Bryan
Redpath and a few clever signings, the club looked to be back on the up after a
couple of seasons in the wilderness. However, nothing seemed to go right for
the sharks. Bryan Redpath took a lot of abuse from the Gloucester faithful
after the debacle surrounding his departure from Kingsholm last season, but he
managed to do nothing for his new side much to the Shed’s amusement! He was
recently demoted to backs coach. John Mitchell came in for a month on a
consultancy basis, but he decided to return home as he was missing his partner
in South Africa. New signings Richie
Gray and Danny Cipriani have added little to the side’s attacking ability, with
the latter recently receiving a barrage of negative press after Sale were
completely outclassed by Toulon in Europe. Sale’s first victory of the season
in the premiership came at home against London Irish at the start of November where
they came out on top in a 21-9 victory. Their patient fans had to wait until
the end of December for the second win, where Sale won 33-27 against Worcester.
Steve Diamond is now reportedly getting more involved with the coaching of the team;
he has stepped down as CEO for the meantime. He needs to turn his squad around immediately;
any more dismal performances will leave his side an unmanageable uphill challenge
to ensure their survival. Key battles for the Sharks come in round 15 where
they play London Welsh away and in round 19 where they face a testing trip to play
London Irish at the Madejski stadium. These two matches could decide the fate
of the only remaining Northern side in England’s top tier of domestic rugby.
Verdict-
Safe, the Sharks should just about avoid
relegation by the skin of their mascot Sharky’s teeth. If Danny Cipriani is
focused, continues to work on his defence and his forwards can give him more of
a platform, Sale have the muscle upfront and the nous in the backs with the
experience of Mark Cueto and attacking threat of Johnny Leota and Rob Miller
needed to stay above water.
Who
do you think will face the drop at the end of the season? Comment below or
message me on twitter @tommyd91
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