The battle to stay in the Aviva Premiership begins

Champagne moment: London Welsh celebrate promotion at the end of last season. Can they avoid the drop at the end of this season?

After 12 tough rounds of Premiership rugby and the turn of the New Year, Worcester, London Welsh, London Irish and the Sale Sharks find themselves struggling at the bottom of the table. With ten matches left in the regular season, each set of coaches will pass on the old cliché that ‘it is all to play for’ or ‘we will take it one game at a time’. This article will look at how each of the aforementioned teams wound up at the bottom of the pile and asses their chances at staying up in the top league of English rugby.

Worcester Warriors 9th (W4 D1 L7 – Pts 25)

Richard Hill’s men have been sitting fairly comfortably in the table this season. They nearly caused a big upset against league leaders Harlequins at the Stoop at the end of November, narrowly losing 22-19. Also, they gave the Northampton Saints a fright at Franklins Gardens in an enthralling 37-31 loss. Home victories over relegation candidates London Irish and Sale Sharks have kept the Warriors just above the real danger zone. Andy Goode at 32 years of age is providing his side with very reliable kicking off the tee and his unrivalled experience allows the 97kg fly half to guide his team to losing bonus points which keep the league table points ticking over.  David Lemi is still an elusive threat in attack, having managed to weave his way to the line four times this season. Having acquired former England and British and Irish Lions defence coach Phil Larder, the Midlands outfit look more assured without the ball and should be a pretty certain to avoid the drop.  

Verdict – Safe from relegation, Worcester are used to the media-circus that follows a relegation battle and their experienced players including  Andy Goode, Shaun Perry and Craig Gillies should help the Warriors from falling in to the abyss. If the Warriors can maintain a good home record this season, they could sneak up on any stalling mid-table sides. Heineken Cup qualification is still another season or more away, and depends on recruitment for next season.

London Welsh 10^th (W4 L8 – Pts 20)

The Premiership newbies picked up promising back-to-back victories against Exeter and Sale in September. This was an impressive turnaround after heavy defeats to Leicester and Harlequins in the opening two rounds of the league. It showed a determination not to cave in and to become the ‘whipping boys’ of the competition. Losing bonus points have been won via the boot of former Scottish international Gordon Ross, who is the 4^th top point scorer in the season to date with 108. Early large defeats aside, the Exiles have been in some tight encounters, and only late surges from mid-table sides have robbed them of unlikely victories. The worry is that the Welsh do not create enough try-scoring chances compared to the other relegation candidates and rely too heavily on kicking penalties for victories.  Also, with a lower budget at their disposal compared to the rest of the league, injuries will test their strength in depth and this could cost them their premiership survival.

Verdict – Relegated, London Welsh face Harlequins at Home and Leicester away in the next two rounds of Premiership action and they are unlikely to come away with any points. The pressure will be ramped-up in round 15 when they take on the Sale Sharks at the Kassam Stadium in a potential relegation decider. The Exiles also face tough weeks in rounds 17 and 18 as they take on both Saracens and Gloucester away. The side’s lack of experience in a relegation battle could also cost them their place in next year’s competition.

London Irish 11^th (W2 L10 –Pts12)

Irish have struggled with a mass player exodus over the past two seasons having lost influential game changers including the Armitage brothers, Nick Kennedy and Paul Hodgson. However, nobody expected Brian Smith’s side to be right at the heart of the relegation battle. It is bizarre that player-retention has become an issue given that only in 2009; Irish were Premiership finalists, narrowly beaten 10-9 by Leicester. Their only Premiership victories so far this season came against Bath (29-22) and Northampton (39-17). This is surprising given that talents such as Jonathan Joseph, Marland Yarde and Tom Homer have began to blossom over the past year. The Irish are a bogey side for many teams, with enthusiastic young backs at their disposal, no team should underestimate them, and they certainly have more try-scoring threat than London Welsh. However, crucially this is yet to come to fruition. Many pundits empathise with Irish because they think something hasn't clicked yet. However, something has to happen soon, or it will be too late. With Gloucester away and Saracens at home in the next two rounds and Leicester waiting for them in the last round of the season, Irish need to at least make sure they win their home encounters with Sale, London Welsh and Worcester and pick up as many losing bonus points as possible to try and survive.

Verdict- Safe, a dreadful first half of the season, but Irish have enough home games against sides from the bottom half of the table to see them through. As the pitches get firmer as we move out of the tough, wet winter, their young fliers will get their chance to prosper and rescue their club.

Sale Sharks 12^th (W2 L10 –Pts11)

Sale’s summer of change seems to have done the North-West club no good at all, they went from finishing 6^th in the League last season to 12^th at the turn of this year. With a new stadium, shared with the Salford City Reds, a new Director of Rugby in Bryan Redpath and a few clever signings, the club looked to be back on the up after a couple of seasons in the wilderness. However, nothing seemed to go right for the sharks. Bryan Redpath took a lot of abuse from the Gloucester faithful after the debacle surrounding his departure from Kingsholm last season, but he managed to do nothing for his new side much to the Shed’s amusement! He was recently demoted to backs coach. John Mitchell came in for a month on a consultancy basis, but he decided to return home as he was missing his partner in South Africa.  New signings Richie Gray and Danny Cipriani have added little to the side’s attacking ability, with the latter recently receiving a barrage of negative press after Sale were completely outclassed by Toulon in Europe. Sale’s first victory of the season in the premiership came at home against London Irish at the start of November where they came out on top in a 21-9 victory. Their patient fans had to wait until the end of December for the second win, where Sale won 33-27 against Worcester. Steve Diamond is now reportedly getting more involved with the coaching of the team; he has stepped down as CEO for the meantime. He needs to turn his squad around immediately; any more dismal performances will leave his side an unmanageable uphill challenge to ensure their survival. Key battles for the Sharks come in round 15 where they play London Welsh away and in round 19 where they face a testing trip to play London Irish at the Madejski stadium. These two matches could decide the fate of the only remaining Northern side in England’s top tier of domestic rugby.

Verdict- Safe­, the Sharks should just about avoid relegation by the skin of their mascot Sharky’s teeth. If Danny Cipriani is focused, continues to work on his defence and his forwards can give him more of a platform, Sale have the muscle upfront and the nous in the backs with the experience of Mark Cueto and attacking threat of Johnny Leota and Rob Miller needed to stay above water.

Who do you think will face the drop at the end of the season? Comment below or message me on twitter @tommyd91

Aviva Premiership XV of the 2012/13 Season after 12 Rounds

Smiles all round: Tom Varndell has been running in tries for fun this season

After 12 rounds in the Aviva Premiership, last season’s champions Harlequins currently occupy the top-spot.  Leicester, Saracens and Gloucester are in hot pursuit, the competition for playoff positions between the chasing pack is fiercer than ever. After a summer full of PR hype and anticipation about a new stadium, a new Director of Rugby and many lucrative signings including Danny Cipriani and Richie Gray, the Sale Sharks are swimming against the tide at the bottom end of the table. There have been some enthralling encounters, but which individuals have impressed in the opening half of the season?

1. Joe Marler (Harlequins) England’s lose-head prop has been in destructive form for club and country, it is no surprise to see Harlequins top of the pile as they have a formidable platform created by hard-working forwards. Marler’s technical nous in the scrum has won his side countless penalties slotted by the reliable former All Black Nick Evans. He also provides a threat with ball in hand which this helps draw in defenders and give Quins attacking momentum.

2. Tom Youngs (Leicester) the hooker has made a smooth transition from the centres and looks right at home at the coalface in the scrum. His throwing in to the line-out has improved and this will get better as he gains more experience at the top level at hooker. Youngs is only 5 foot 9, however, he is very powerful and his ability to get low and keep his strong leg drive going makes him a difficult player to bring down.

3. Dan Cole (Leicester) Cole is one of the most improved players of 2012-his form pushed the Tigers and Italian stalwart Martin Castrogiovanni to the bench for the majority of this season. The tight-head seems to be giving away fewer penalties and has mastered the ability to put the squeeze on an opposing front-row, seen most recently in Leicester’s demolition job against Gloucester in the 17-12 victory at Welford Road.

4. Joe Launchbury (Wasps) is one of the most promising young players around - the 21 year old has a bright future ahead of him. He already has 4 England caps to his name, and some outstanding performances in the Premiership behind him, Launchbury will get better as he gets more experience at the top level. He has already proved himself to be a viable line-out option and a powerful ball carrier. One to watch, Wasps will be delighted to have secured his signature until the end of the 2014/15 season.

5. Geoff Parling (Leicester) the line-out guru has excelled this season; he has an uncanny ability to read the opposition’s set-up and react quickly during defensive line-outs, and is a versatile and reliable jumper in an attacking set-piece. Yet to commit himself to another contract with Leicester, many other Premiership sides and some French outfits are keen to acquire his services for next season.

6. Kelly Brown (Saracens) the Scottish flanker’s ability to get to the breakdown and both secure and steal possession has helped Sarries to second place in the table going in to the New Year. His experience with Scotland (52 caps) is a real asset to Saracens, the breakdown in the Premiership is a contentious issue, however, if you are quick and smart enough, you can occasionally exploit the official’s naivety to  your side’s benefit. Brown does this with ease, and he leads a stringent back row in defence, his side have the best defence in the league, having only conceded 162 points in 12 games.

7. Akapusi Qera (Gloucester) the Fijian powerhouse has been knocking players backwards all season, his work rate is phenomenal and his passion to play for the Cherry and Whites is undeniable. Promisingly, the flanker has shown more than sheer physicality, as he is the league’s top scoring forward, having crossed the line 4 times to date.

8. Nick Easter (Harlequins) England’s ‘forgotten man’ is still thriving at the Stoop, it is easy to understand Stuart Lancaster’s decision to look to youth ahead of the Rugby World Cup in 2015 on home soil, however, Easter continues to work his socks off in defence and break the gain-line from the back of the champions’ scrum. He is particularly strong collecting kick-offs and making the hard yards to keep his side on the front foot.

9. Danny Care (Harlequins) simply the best scrum-half in the league so far this season, however, most scrum halves in the tournament would thrive with the amount of quality possession that Care has at his disposal. What impresses me about Care is his ability to raise his side’s tempo at any point in a game and his quick-thinking. He creates opportunities for his team-mates and always looks to catch lazy defences napping from quick-taps or penalties.

10. Freddie Burns (Gloucester) has matured and has added vital controlling aspects to his game needed to help force Gloucester in to the top four. Twice voted Premiership player of the month, the former Bath academy playmaker was rightly given with his first England cap as a replacement in the 38-21 victory over the All Blacks at Twickenham. He has always been able to create something out of nothing; however, his tactical kicking has kept a slightly misfiring Gloucester in matches, when in previous seasons they would have folded at earlier stages in the game. His place-kicking has also vastly improved, for most of the season he has been hovering at around 80%. Currently, Burns is the league’s top points scorer with 173.

11. Matt Jess (Exeter) surprisingly, the Chiefs are the league’s joint top try scorers with Harlequins with 29 scores to date. This has been an exciting turnaround for Rob Baxter’s men, who in their first two seasons, were typecast by their gritty performances and victories based around reliable place kicking. However, the South Westerners have added some variety and creativity to their game to Jess’s benefit, the former Coventry speedster has crossed 4 times this season, proving himself to be a more than capable finisher in the Premiership.

12. Billy Twelvetrees (Gloucester) Leicester’s Richard Cockerill was furious when he heard he was loosing his centre/fly-half to Gloucester and it obvious to see why. Twelvetrees is very strong at the breakdown, he wins turnovers and penalties with ease and his long kicking game gives Freddie Burns another option to relieve pressure and also to turn the screw on retreating defences. Encouragingly, the England Saxon centre has more to give; he needs to be used more in distributing the ball wide to danger man such as England’s Charlie Sharples, Jonny May (when he returns from injury) and the lesser known, but equally dangerous runner Shane Monahan.

13. Owen Farrell (Saracens) normally plays at inside-centre for his club, but he has turned out for his club at outside-centre. His passion for the physical aspects of the game is inspiring, he never backs out of a tackle and he is becoming a very shrewd rugby player. When the pitches harden during the final quarter of the season, Farrell needs to add more creativity to his game. He needs to replicate his performance at fly-half for England against the All Blacks in the No. 10 shirt. However, Saracens often look to the veteran Charlie Hodgson, who is still the best passing fly-half in the league and has a metronomic boot. As with their new stadium – the Allianz Park equipped with a 4G playing surface, Saracens need to look to the future, and give Farrell a chance in the commanding fly-half position.

14. Tom Varndell (Wasps) one of the remarkable turnarounds this season, Varndell was unfortunate to suffer long-term injuries in previous seasons. However, the wing capped 4 times by England has been part of a fascinating comeback by Wasps, who currently sit one point behind the top four in 5^th position.  Sadly, his England career didn't take off as he was criticised for a weak defensive game, however, his attacking game has never been in doubt – he has dotted down ten times this season. His footwork and raw pace gives him the ability to finish chances even in the narrowest of channels.

15. Mike Brown (Harlequins) continued his excellent form from the 2011/2012 championship winning season with Harlequins. His counter-attacking ability and tactical kicking prowess make him an incredibly dangerous full-back to kick to. Brown played two games in the autumn internationals on the wing, however, his strongest position is at full-back, where he can read the game and provide a useful attacking threat from deep.

Do you have any thoughts or comments about my selections? Who do you think have been standout players for your club this season? Comment below or tweet me @tommyd91