Who can lead their side to victory in the RBS Six Nations?
England
The disappointing World Cup in New Zealand brought about an overhaul of the Senior EPS squad and management team. Stuart Lancaster takes charge of his first senior international game against Scotland this weekend.
The squad chosen shows an attempt to blood youth on to the international stage. Some fear the lack of experience could be a serious issue, however, for once; the England squad has been picked on form and not on reputation.
This has led to the selection of young talented players who have been in tremendous form for their clubs. Saracens currently sit second in the Premiership and have a sizable contingent in the new squad.
Owen Farrell has been pulling the strings for the Watford club with maturity beyond his years. His goal-kicking will be vital, it is likely that England will not be able to rely on a solid platform throughout the tournament and chances with the boot will have to be taken.
Outside him, Brad Barritt has developed in to a hard-hitting centre; he could well be a long-term replacement for the discarded Mike Tindal. Dave Strettle, another club mate is chosen on the left wing, he has been selected for being one of the best players in the Premiership beating would-be-tacklers with his excellent footwork.
In the forwards, experience has been replaced by players in form with good work efforts. The side is captained by Harlequins’ Chris Robshaw, Quins have been sensational at times this season and it is refreshing to see Robshaw’s leadership being rewarded. His back-row colleagues are seasoned Saxon Phil Dowson and Tom Croft.
Many argue that Dowson should have plenty of England caps to his name, but the Northampton man has plied his trade in the Saxons and for his club and now should kick-on to the senior stage. Croft is one of the few senior members in the squad, his experience with Leicester, England and the British and Irish Lions will be a key attribute for Lancaster’s side. Croft provides an additional line-out option and will be on hand to try and win turnover ball.
The front-row combination of Alex Corbisiero, Dylan Hartley and Dan Cole will be under severe pressure against Scotland. Hartley is considered an experienced player now and he needs to set the example on and off the pitch. Cole did not have a convincing World Cup, but he has great potential.
Matt Stephens will feel disappointed not to be starting; however, he will be a vital addition to the team from the bench. Corbisiero needs to lay down a marker because his appearances so far in the national jersey have been fairly average.
Prediction: 4th Lancaster’s side are not title contenders. However, they are looking to build towards the 2015 World Cup which will be held on home soil. England faces testing away trips to Murrayfield, the Stadio Flaminio and the Stade de France, securing three victories will be enough to define Lancaster’s trial caretaking period as a success.
France
Les Bleus were the surprise package in New Zealand, they did not perform well in the pool stages and the squad quarrelled with Coach Marc Lièvremont during training and over game plans.
Lièvremont’s side managed to graft their way to the final past a dismal English side in the quarter-finals and then they managed a narrow 9-8 victory over Wales in which the controversial red-card issued to Sam Warburton may have cost Wales the game.
The final did not set the rugby world alight, but the French nearly pinched the Webb-Ellis Trophy from the hosts as they lost 7-8 in Auckland.
Former Gloucester, Sale and Toulon coach Philippe-Saint-Andre steps in to become the new head coach, he brings a lot of experience with him and he has a good eye for young talent.
Wesley Fofana, 24, is due to win his first cap for France this Saturday against Italy in Paris. The Clermont centre has been in fine form for his club, he has helped up to second in the Top 14. In doing so, he has scored three tires and been a key playmaker all over the pitch.
The remainder of the back three need no introduction; Vincent Clerc and Aurelien Rougerie are synonymous with Six Nations, Heineken Cup and Top 14 try-scoring. Between them they have 128 French caps and 53 tries. Teams will have to kick at the right times and right in to the corners as inaccurate kicking will be counter-attacked by two of the best in the business.
The French are blessed with kickers spread all over their squad. Dimitri Yachvilli starts against Italy; the Biarritz scrum-half is usually metronomic with the boot and has excellent game management skills are a real asset. Francois Trinh-Duc starts against the Azzurri at fly-half, the Montpellier playmaker is preferred to Lionel Beauxis, who sits on the bench.
France are Grand-Slam candidates, they have dazzling backs and forwards who can put in the hard work and make a solid platform for quick-ball. The French are captained by Thierry Dusetoir, a powerful tackler and expert around the fringes.
True servants to the dark art of front-row come in William Servat and Nicholas Mas. These two warriors will be vital to test other teams’ younger front-row contingents and force penalties at crucial stages in matches.
France should be equally strong in the line-out, Lionel Nallet and Pascal Pape are key jumpers and Servat will be sure to hit his target when needed.
Prediction: 1st: Six Nations Champions and Grand Slam winners. The squad has not been completely reshuffled, experienced players remain and there are a few glimpses of fresh talent. Paris is a strong home venue, away trips to Murrayfield and Cardiff will be difficult, but the French should be too strong for the two home nations.
Ireland
This will be the start of Ireland’s new era without their try guru and heroic leader Brian O’Driscoll. The Irish beat Australia 15-6 in the pool stages, however, Wales proved too strong in the quarter-finals as the men in green lost 10-22 in Wellington.
The Heineken Cup has seen fantastic performances from Ireland’s provinces; Munster, Leinster and Ulster have all progressed to the quarter-finals, a real sign of real quality in Irish rugby.
The burden of Heineken Cup performances now lies on Irish players’ heads. Luckily, old-hands such as Paul O’Connell, Gordon D’Arcy and Donncha O’Callaghan remain. These key leaders along with will have to pull-together in order to cover in O’Driscoll’s absence.
Back-row options are a key talking point this season, Ireland have Stephen Ferris, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip lining up against Wales this weekend.
Out of the trio, Heaslip has the most experience internationally, he can make yardage beyond the gain-line and knows his way to the try-line.
Ferris has been in tremendous form for Ulster of late having recovered from a troublesome knee injury last year.
O’Brien brings phenomenal physicality, the 17 stone, 6”2 Leinster man will look to cause damage in the loose and force turnovers against weaker, more agile opposing back-row.
The line-out will be reliable courtesy of O’Callaghan and O’Connell, the Munstermen are experts in set-piece play and will provide their side with quick, quality ball.
At halfback, Ireland has the luxury of choosing between Jonathan Sexton and Ronan O’Gara. Sexton is currently preferred in the No.10 shirt; however, O’Gara is an extremely useful player to have on the bench in tight games. His tactical kicking is still second-to-none and his composure was evident during two close Heineken Cup games in which he scored the winning drop-goals against Northampton and Castres.
Finally in the outside backs, Ireland have some solid centres in Gordon D'Arcy and Fergus McFadden. D'Arcy is a player of great experience with 63 caps to his name, whil McFadden has not had much of a chance to start for Ireland, now he has his opportunity.
Unfortunately, Keith Earls had to pull out of this weekend's game because his recently-born daughter is unwell.
Unfortunately, Keith Earls had to pull out of this weekend's game because his recently-born daughter is unwell.
Rob Kearney takes the high ball as well as any in full-back in the Championship and he is an elusive counter-attacking threat. Tommy Bowe is another proven try-scorer, the Ospreys winger has scored 19 tries for his country and he will be eager to add to his tally.
Prediction: 3rd Ireland do have serious potential, however, away trips to the Stade de France and Twickenham could prove costly to their campaign hopes.
Italy
Last year’s shock of the tournament came courtesy of Italy as they stunned France in a nail-biting 22-21 victory at the Stadio Flaminio. Sadly the Italians did not carry the momentum forward to the Rugby World Cup in New Zealand where they won just two games against Russia and the United States.
Forward power is undoubtedly Italy’s major asset; their scrum will definitely test a few of Europe’s finest workmen in the engine room. Leicester’s Martin Castrogiovanni with 42 caps to his name will prove a real challenge in particular for England’s young front-row; the long-haired prop is an aggressive scrummager and knows club mate Dan Cole’s weaknesses.
The Stade-Français stalwart Sergio Parisse will undoubtedly catch the eye of the commentators and pundits because he stands out so significantly in an otherwise fairly mediocre team. Parisse is not only an immensely powerful runner and tackler, but he also fields kicks like a member of the back-three and has an uncanny ability to offload during the tackle to keep play alive.
Traditionally Italy struggles with goal-kicking, the Italians have let many close games in the Six Nations pass them by due to the lack of a specialist kicker. The Mirco Bergamasco had taken the kicking duties on and off over the past few years, but there is no place for him in this year’s tournament because he has been struggling with a shoulder injury.
Prediction: 6th, the Italians will produce some good rugby, however, they will struggle to grind out narrow games, many of the team are inexperienced and some of the warriors from previous campaigns are aging.
Scotland
This weekend Scotland takes on a young, inexperienced England side at Murrayfield. This is Scotland’s chance to make a stand in the tournament. Calcutta cup matches are always fought with passion and pride, this season is slightly different to normal.
England is a side with serious changes and disruption, whereas Andy Robinson has been building and improving his side over the last few seasons. Scotland were perhaps unlucky not to go through to the quarter-finals in New Zealand, but they need to be clinical and they will be peppering England’s half with high kicks from the off on Saturday. If Scotland can chase their kicks well, penalties will be awarded to them because England’s back-row has not played together before and there will be some confusion organisationally at the break down.
Chris Patterson will not be gracing the pitches of Europe in this season’s Six Nations as he announced his retirement from international rugby in December. Andy Robinson now looks for Dan Parks to carry the goal-kicking duties as his starting fly-half.
Scotland’s gritty forwards are summed up in the selection of Gloucester’s Jim Hamilton. ‘Big Jim’ is a fine line-out forward and really leads the driving maul well. Hamilton is partnered by Richie Gray, who is a more agile line-out expert who provides more subtlety in open-play.
Euan Murray, Ross Ford and Allan Jacobsen as a front-row unit have an average weight of nearly 115kg. These three have been fortunate to get plenty of game time together on the international scene
Prediction: 5th Scotland have the potential to be a great side, at times their forward play is outstanding, however, they still can not score tries. With Dan Parks at fly-half it is unlikely that this trait will change, however, Andy Robinson is gambling with a pragmatic kicking game plan backed up by a strong, tight forward game.
Wales
Sam Warburton’s ‘spear-tackle’ in the semi-final against France may have cost Wales their first attempt at a World Cup final. They showed great promise in New Zealand and it is unfair to completely blame the red card for their loss to France. Wales had their chances to snatch a victory with only 14 men; however, they could not quite do enough to sneak in to the final.
Warburton hopes to fulfil his nation’s expectation, fuelling their campaign with the disappointment of the semi-final and their extreme training camp experiences in Poland.
Warren Gatland delayed the naming of his match-day squad to face Ireland because of injury concerns with several key players.
Gatland has plenty of fly-halves to choose from; he has selected Rhys Priestland as his starting No.10 even though the Scarlets playmaker has not been training all week.
The bench may be busy if Priestland is not fully fit or if he picks up another knock to his knee. Gatland has the versatile James Hook in reserve, Hook will undoubtedly get some game time as he can cover fly-half, centre or full-back.
The back-three is another area where Wales have a wealth of talent. George North has continued to impress this season and he hopes to take the try-scoring mantle out of Shane Williams’ hands this season.
Leigh Halfpenny starts full-back; his electric pace and nimble footwork will make him a dangerous man to kick to. He can also take pot-shots at goal from 50 metres out; this is another useful string to his bow.
The final member of the back-three is Alex Cuthbert. The 21 year old Cardiff Blues winger makes his first start for Wales. He must make sure he does not let the occasion overwhelm him; he has performed well in the Pro 12 and Heineken Cup and has his chance to make his case for an international future.
Shane Williams is among the replacements so if youngsters North and Cuthbert can’t seem to find the try-line, the legendary Ospreys winger could be brought on for a short stint if Wales are desperate for a score in the closing stages.
In the scrum Wales will be slightly concerned. The reliable Adam Jones starts, however, Gethin Jenkins is injured. This means that Saracens’ Rhys Gill makes only his second start for his country. This will be an area that Ireland will look to exploit, but Gill will have Huw Bennett, who makes his 50th appearance for Wales at hooker to bolster the scrum.
Bradley Davies and Ian Evans, partner up in the second-row in the absence of locks Luke Charteris and Alun Wyn Jones. The two injured set-piece experts will be missed this weekend; however, Bennett has other options in the line-out.
In the back-row Wales look once more to Ryan Jones on the blind-side, Jones is selected as another option in the line-out and while he is no longer the captain, he will have plenty of advice for his young back-row colleagues in Toby Faletau and Sam Warburton who captains the side.
Faletau’s work rate in the World Cup was exceptional. The Tongan-born Dragon did not miss a single tackle throughout the campaign, if Wales are to challenge this season he will have to find similar form.
Finally Warburton makes up the final member of the back-row; he starts at open-side flanker and looks now to put the drama of the World Cup behind him with a convincing performance in the RBS Six Nations.
Prediction: 2nd Wales will show how much they have learned from the World Cup and how a team benefits from the blooding of youth encouraged by Warren Gatland. Injured players may need to hurry back from injury to push their claim for the championship.
My 2012 RBS Six Nations final standings prediction:
1st. France (Grand Slam Winners)
2nd. Wales
3rd. Ireland
4th. England
5th. Scotland
6th. Italy
1st. France (Grand Slam Winners)
2nd. Wales
3rd. Ireland
4th. England
5th. Scotland
6th. Italy
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