Aviva Premiership Preview

 Who will win the Aviva Premiership this year and who will struggle at the bottom of the table?

The 2011/12 season brings different challenges to the Aviva Premiership teams because it is a World Cup year. The 12 sides have been busy in the transfer market, making sure that they have the strength in depth required to replace missing players in New Zealand and also to prepare for possible long injury lists. It seems fly-halves have been the key signings for many teams, with Bath, Saracens and Wasps bringing in new No.10’s. The fly-half position will be key for many teams this year as it is vital to make the most of every opportunity in an opponent’s half, whether that is kicking from the tee or setting up try-scoring opportunities. Last season Saracens demonstrated an ability to play effective rugby and lost only 4 games. The Saracens won 18  out of 22 matches and they showed they were the most consistent team in the league by beating Leicester at Twickenham to claim their 1^st Premiership Title.

Bath

Bath had a difficult season last year; they started poorly but managed to turn their act around in the second half of the season.  They have been using their new investment wisely in the Transfer market; their pack has been greatly strengthened with the addition of Dave Attwood in the second-row and Francois Louw in the back-row. Perhaps most significantly, Bath has acquired the services of Stephen Donald as fly-half, who has represented New Zealand 22 times. With Olly Barkley recovering from a horrific broken leg, Donald will be a useful member of the squad. Donald has had an exceptional career in the Super 14 and 15, scoring 840 points for the Chiefs and is sure to bring an extra dynamic to the team.

World cup losses: 6- Matt Banahan, Francois Louw, Lewis Moody,  Lee Mears, Anthony Perenise and David Wilson

Last Season: 5^th

This Season: 4^th Bath are not losing as many players to the World Cup in New Zealand as some teams and Donald will be a key addition to the squad bringing control to back line, whilst adding an excellent goal-kicking option for the team.

Exeter

The men from the South-West were last year’s surprise addition to the Aviva Premiership. Exeter finished 8^th and narrowly missed out on Heineken Cup qualification. It will be a tough test to repeat last year’s achievement of staying up in the Premiership an increasingly competitive tournament. Tom Johnson was outstanding for the Chiefs; he provided stern leadership and a powerful presence at the breakdown. Johnson was nominated for the player’s player of the season and he won caps for the Saxons in June. Exeter has some dangerous attacking players with Mark Foster and Luke Arscott, both players who can cause defences problems. Another key strength for the Chiefs is the fact that they have a No.10 in Gareth Steenson who can guide the team to victories with an accurate kicking game from hand and also, he is a great goal-kicker. The key to Premiership survival is winning your home games and picking up a few away wins, if Exeter can do this they will be safe from the drop.

World cup losses: 3- Gonzalo Camacho, Craig Mitchell, Junior Poluleuligaga

Last season: 8^th

This season: 9^th this season’s campaign will be tough and it will be a dogfight at the bottom between Sale, Newcastle, Worcester and Exeter.

Gloucester

The Cherry and Whites had a promising season as they won the LV=Cup and narrowly lost 12-10 in the semi-final of the Aviva Premiership to the eventual winners, Saracens. Gloucester lost their 1^st choice fly-half, Nicky Robinson, over the summer who has left to join Wasps. Their main concern this year will be at fly-half, where they have Freddie Burns and Tim Taylor to call on; however Burns has regular injury worries with his calves, many doubt his ability to play a full 80 minutes and Taylor has not had much Premiership experience.  Whereas there may be a weakness in the fly-half channel, Gloucester has strengthened their front-row options. Dan Murphy, the physically imposing prop has been signed from London Irish and Dario Chistolini has been added to the front-row. Chistolini has played for Italy A and is a promising powerful scrummager. Gloucester is looking to go back to their traditional roots with a strong set piece. The Cherry and Whites will be losing 7 players to the World Cup and their strength in depth will be tested. Gloucester's defence in particular will be threatened without Mike Tindall in the centre, however, his International duty means that young exciting talents such as Henry Trinder and Ryan Mills will get a chance to shine at Kingsholm.

World cup losses: 7- Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu, Jim Hamilton, Rory Lawson, Scot Lawson, Alasdair Strokosch, Mike Tindall

Last season: 3^rd (lost in semi-final to Saracens)

This season: 5^th Gloucester will miss Nicky Robinson who guided his side to many key wins last season.

Harlequins                                                      

Last year’s Amlin Challenge Cup winners will be a side to watch this season, they will only lose three players to the World Cup in New Zealand in Nick Easter and Tomas Vallejos.  Danny Care’s injury will be a blessing in disguise as they will potentially have him back earlier than if he had remained with the England squad. Quins have recovered from the ‘Bloodgate’ scandal and all the forced changes that resulted from it.  The set up at the Stoop is around a young English squad; however, there is a great blend of youth and experience, with the former All Black Nicky Evans likely to be the stand out player this year. Evans is one of the most exciting attacking fly-halves in the Premiership and he will be pulling the strings this year.

World cup losses: 2- Nick Easter, Maurie Fa'asavalu, Tomas Vallejos

Last season: 7^th

This season: 7^th Harlequins will look to push for the play-offs, but they do not have the strength in depth required to make the top four

Leicester

The Tigers were beaten finalists last year and they will be looking to get back to winning ways with a strong showing this season. However, the Tigers are losing the most players to the World Cup compared to any Aviva Premiership team. They will have 11 players missing for International duty.  In particular, Leicester will miss the Tuilagi brothers and Toby Flood. There will be a lack of physicality in the back line and there will be less direction and control in the No.10 shirt with Billy Twelvetrees likely to fill-in. This could be a problem for their title hopes. However, if Leicester can get through the World Cup period and remain in the top-six in the league, they will be well placed to push themselves up the table when their International players return.

World cup players: 11-  Horacio Agulla, Marcos Ayerza, Martin Castrogiovanni, Dan Cole, Tom Croft, Louis Deacon, Toby Flood, Geordan Murphy, Alesana Tuilagi, Manu Tuilagi

Last season: 1^st (lost in final to Saracens)

This season: 2^nd, Leicester will struggle during the World Cup squad, but they will find their form when their World Cup players return.

London Irish

The Irish had a great start to the season last year and were tipped to make the top four; however, they failed to push on from their promising start and dropped down the table. London Irish are a team that many sides find difficult to break down; they have a strong defensive line and have some dangerous attacking threats in Topsy Ojo and Tom Homer.  They are a confident side at home, but they struggle like most mid-table sides in away matches. Last season they only beat Newcastle, Exeter and Sale away. In order for London Irish to push for the play-off positions, they must improve their away form.

World cup players: 6- Joe Ansbro, Delon Armitage, Alex Corbisero, Shontayne Hape, Alfredo Lalanne, Sailosi Tagicakibau

Last season: 6^th

This season: 8^th London Irish will struggle without some key players during the World Cup and they do not have the experience needed to make the top four this season

Newcastle

The Falcons were lucky to stay in the Aviva Premiership last season; they played simple rugby and relied on their impressive goal-kicker Jimmy Goppeth to keep them in the top-flight. They only stayed up because Neil Back’s Leeds side were even worse than the Falcons. If Jimmy Goppeth gets injured, Newcastle will really struggle to compete with the rest of the Premiership. However, they may once again be able to cling on to Premiership rugby. Expect tense low-scoring matches won by the boot of Goppeth or any visiting fly-halves.

World Cup players: 3- Euan Murray, Teisana Tu'uifua and Tevita Tu'ifua

Last season: 11^th

This season: 11^th There simple game relying on kicking penalties will keep them in the Premiership by the skin of their teeth.

Northampton

The Saints will also miss a lot of their key players during the World Cup period; they will be a less potent attacking threat without the likes of Chris Ashton and Ben Foden. They will also miss the presence of Dylan Hartley in the front-row and in the set-piece. The Saints struggled last season when their Internationals were absent, this was the main reason they missed out on a home semi-final position. They have been smart in the Transfer market, pinching up and coming Prop Paul Doran-Jones from Gloucester, the mercurial Ryan Lamb from London Irish and the physical centre/wing Tom May from Toulon. If Saints can manage to perform well without their Internationals, by the time they return they could be well placed to mount a charge up the table.

World Cup players- 7- Vasili Artemyev, Chris, Ashton, Ben Foden, Dylan Hartley, George Pisi, Soane Tonga'uiha, Tom Wood

Last season: 4^th (lost in semi-final to Leicester)

This season: 3^rd The Saints will be fairly well placed after the World Cup and when their superstars return they will be ruthless after missing out in last year’s controversial semi-final vs. Leicester.

Sale

Sale are another team that relied on their kicker last season, Charlie Hodgson on many occasions saved the Sharks from narrow losses. However, Hodgson has joined Saracens this year and his presence will be dearly missed. The Sharks have made a few interesting signings, including the troubled Andy Powell whose behaviour off the field lost his contract with Wasps. Hopefully, he will be able to become an good influence on younger players in the squad. Hendre Fourie is an excellent addition to the squad, his physicality and skill at the breakdown will be vital. The back-row has been bolstered, but the Sharks lack direction at fly-half and their squad is not deep enough to cover their substantial list of World Cup players and cover if any injuries that occur.

World cup losses- 10 Tony Buckley, Mark, Cueto, Alisdair Dickinson, Tasesa Lavea, Wame Lewaravu, Johnny Leota, Andrei Ostrikov, Andy Powell, Andrew Sheridan,  Richie Vernon

Last season: 10^th

This season: 12^th Sale will not have their talisman Hodgson this year and they will miss his ability to control a game and keep the scoreboard ticking over.

Saracens

Saracens won their first ever Premiership title last season after a commanding performance against Leicester in the final. Schalk Brits was in mesmerising form at hooker with the pace and footwork that many wingers lack and Owen Farrell took his chance well at fly-half and made himself a starting No.10. This season, Sarries will push on with Charlie Hodgson, who in my opinion is a clever signing. He is not the most exciting fly-half in the Aviva Premiership, but he will give Saracens direction and be a useful teacher to a young Farrell.  Saracens will hopefully play a more exciting brand of rugby this year, if they do they have quality players out wide to cause damage in defensive lines.

World Cup losses: 8- Kelly Brown, Jacques Burger, John Smit, Hayden Smith, Matt Stevens,  Michael Tagicakibau, Richard Wigglesworth, Chris Wyles

Last season: 2^nd (won Premiership final)

This season: 1^st it is difficult to look past Saracens as favourites,  as long as they can provide their World Cup absentees with a suitable position in the table to return to they will be a tough side to beat to the 1^st position.

Wasps

London Wasps had a terrible season last year, they had no consistency and did not look like the Wasps side we know can challenge for Titles. However, this season they have signed Nicky Robinson at fly-half, who will add much needed leadership to the number 10 shirt and will get the backs running dangerously again. Wasps are lucky in that they will only lose a few players to International duties in the World Cup. They keep the likes of Ricki Flutey and Joe Worsley and these experienced players will be essential to revitalising the Wasps effort. The likely scenario will be that Wasps will have  a strong World Cup period and will dip when other teams have their teams back to full strength after the tournament in New Zealand.

World Cup losses, 4- Simon Shaw, Joe Simpson, Sakaria Taulafo Steve Thompson,

Last season: 9^th

This season: 6^th Wasps have been fortunate to sign a top class fly-half in Nicky Robinson and the fact that Ricki Flutey and Joe Worsley are not going to the World Cup will be crucial to Wasps returning to the top six.

Worcester

Newly-promoted Worcester find themselves back in the Aviva Premiership and face a difficult task in stepping-up to the pace and tempo of Premiership rugby. The Premiership has undoubtedly become more testing with every game vital to Premiership survival to teams like Worcester, Newcastle, Sale and Exeter. With Andy Goode at the helm in the fly-half position, Worcester has an experienced play maker who can kick his goals and test defences. Furthermore, the signing of Shaun Perry has been a crucial move as the Warriors now have a skilful scrum-half who can lead the backs with authority. Young Miles Benjamin will be looking forward to getting wide into space and exploiting his pace, he is definitely one to watch this season. Worcester are a team that will fight for their right to stay in the top division this year, they have some exciting talents and if any teams underestimate them they will be punished especially at Sixways with a passionate fan  base behind them.

Last season: promoted to Aviva Premiership

This season: 10^th Worcester will be tougher after a brutal schedule in Division 1. They will play smart rugby and their loyal fans will be back in their thousands to watch the Warriors on their return to the Premiership.

My Aviva Premiership Prediction

1.    Saracens (play-off winners)

2.    Leicester

3.    Northampton

4.    Bath

5.    Gloucester

6.    Wasps

7.    Harlequins

8.    London Irish

9.     Exeter

10.  Worcester

11.  Newcastle

12.  Sale (Relegated)

Have you any thoughts or comments? Post them below or message me on twitter @tommyd91.