It’s
my favourite time of year in the rugby calendar once again; the Six Nations is
back and the anticipation has been bigger than ever. After a phenomenal Lions
series victory in Australia, helped significantly by the sizable Welsh
contingent, Sam Warburton’s side are clear favourites. However, the Six Nations
brings unpredictability and drama from the first whistle to the final play of
the match. Normally the Scots and the Italians are written off even before a
ball has been kicked, however, last year Ireland fell at the hands of the
regular wooden spoon contenders. It’s the old cliché, but no side should be
taken for granted. However, who will lift the RBS Six Nations trophy on Sunday
15th March?
England
Stuart Lancaster’s side have
an exciting look about themselves this year; finally the out-of-form defensive
weak link that is Chris Ashton has been dropped and speedsters Jonny May and
Jack Nowell are given a thrilling chance to impress away to France in the first
round of the tournament. These two know how to find the try line, so it is down
to England’s engine room to provide the platform up front. The one area of
concern is the centre partnership, with Manu Tuilagi injured and Brad Barritt
still working his way back into form after an injury of his own, Billy
Twelvetrees and Luther Burrell are given the 12 and 13 shirts respectively. In
the autumn internationals, Twelvetrees showed some promise; however, the
Gloucester vice-captain lacked consistency and missed one crucial tackle
against Australia. Burrell has been punching holes in defences all season for
Northampton and he must continue his form in the red rose to give England any
hope of scalping the French. Up front, England’s pack has been steadily taking
shape over the past two seasons; the combative front row of Joe Marler, Dylan
Hartley and Dan Cole are tried and tested at the top level and Lancaster can
call on the dynamic ball-carrying abilities of Tom Youngs and Mako Vunipola – a
terrifying thought for tiring defences. The line-out should function well with
Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes calling the shots. It’s fantastic to see
Lawes back in an England shirt; he plays the enforcer role so well. The England
back-row options are an embarrassment of riches at present, but Tom Wood,
captain Chris Robshaw and Billy Vunipola bring the right balance of physicality
and nuisance-making at the breakdown.
Prediction: 3rd
With England still building towards the 2015 Rugby World Cup and too many new
combinations being tested out Lancaster’s men cannot be labelled genuine
contenders.
France
Who knows how the French
will perform in this year’s tournament? They a back line swarming with flair
and pace and a set of forwards that can overwhelm any side on its day, however,
too often, Les Bleus don’t turn up when it matters. Clearly the cash-rich Top
14 is affecting the national side as French youngsters don’t get to play ahead
of the star-studded foreign imports turning out week-in-week-out. Two
Toulousains immediately jump out in the back-row as ones to watch in Louis
Picamoles and Yannick Nyanga, with club mate Thierry Dusautoir not selected
this year. A problem area for France has been at
fly-half, and Philippe Saint-Andre has given the No.10 shirt to Jules Plisson who
makes his debut following fine form for Stade Francais. He needs to manage the
game well, before releasing his gifted outside backs. Elsewhere, Wesley Fofana
who played so brilliantly in last year’s tournament is going to be a marked man
in this tournament; his footwork and deceptive strength make him a real
challenge to mark. Mathieu Bastareaud has been phenomenal for Toulon this
season, and he will be a real handful for England newbie Burrell in Paris this
weekend. France had a horrendous autumn international series and they are
desperate for a change in fortunes, write them off at your peril. The French
always perform well following a Lions series, and they are a tough test for
anyone in front of their partisan faithful at the Stade de France.
Prediction:
4th France seem too shaky at present and one bad result will have
the press on their back and even more pressure on Saint-Andre’s already heavily
burdened shoulders. However, if they find their form, the fixture list is
favourable this year and a runners-up spot wouldn’t be out of the question.
Ireland
At the end of 2013, Ireland
nearly managed one of their greatest ever victories, however, they were edged
out by the All Blacks at home in an agonising last play of the game defeat
22-24. Joe Schmidt’s men will hope to exhibit the scintillating attacking rugby
they displayed in the heroic defeat to New Zealand, especially considering that
this is likely to be Brian O’Driscoll’s final Six Nations tournament. The
leading try scorer in the history of the tournament still has what it takes to
lead a team to victory at the top level and while he may have lost a yard or
two of pace over the years, his stoic defensive efforts and ability to read the
game would put him on any team sheet in world rugby in the No.13 shirt. Ireland
are sadly missing experienced players in Tommy Bowe, Keith Earls, Donnacha Ryan
and Sean O'Brien – who recently signed a new contract keeping him in Ireland.
Absentees of this quality will be missed; however, the fixture card gifts them
three home games this year, which is a huge positive. Cian Healy and Rory Best are two of the best
front row forwards in the competition; they will establish dominion in the
set-piece and are both a handful in the loose. Skippered by the evergreen Paul
O’Connell, the line-out will function well and the British and Irish Lion is
one of the top leaders in the competition. He helped Munster grind out a
determined victory away to Gloucester at Kingsholm last month, his desire and
grunt has not waned as he has aged in the slightest. Jamie Heaslip will have a
lot of work to do this year without O’Brien to help him at the breakdown, and
the No.8 battles are some of the most enticing clashes this year with the likes
of Vunipola, Picamoles, Sergio Parisse and Heaslip himself, there will be some
monstrous collisions. There is some
inexperience in Ireland’s backline, however, the likes of Rob Kearney and Jonny
Sexton will provide guidance and set the standard for the younger cubs in the
squad. The latter has much to prove in my opinion after struggling to make his
mark for Racing Metro, despite his six-figure salary.
Prediction: 2nd
Ireland host three home games and with several experienced internationals
playing what may prove to be their last tournament, they will throw everything
they can at the competition. Ireland are disciplined, very physical and have
some fantastic footballers at their disposal.
Italy
Rugby fans adore their
pilgrimages to the Stadio Flaminio each year; the gladiatorial venue has definitely
hosted its fair share of upsets over the years. Having toppled Ireland and
France last season, the Italians are not to be underestimated. However, the Italians struggle in the Six
Nations with a small player base to choose from and two weak sides that
languish at the foot of the Rabo Direct league. Typically you can expect to see
plenty of passion, aggression and a desire to attack from Jacques Brunel’s side;
however, they lack strength-in-depth and the ability to close out most games.
Last season, they even ran England close 18-11 at Twickenham, but the class is
slightly lacking in key positions. This
cannot be said for Sergio Parisse, who captains his country yet again, the
warrior No.8 is consistently regarded as one of the players of the tournament,
despite his side’s poor performances over the history of the competition. Had
he been born in the southern hemisphere, he would have been in the hall of fame
by now, clutching world cups in his arms.
However, the proud Italian has a real task ahead of him to prevent Italy
from collecting the wooden spoon. The
Italian backline lacks experience and the class normally associated with the
ambitious national side. However, Luke McLean provides a reliable service from
full-back under the high ball and offers a real threat on the counter attack. Italy
host Scotland in round three in the key encounter for the wooden spoon. Parisse
will be confident his side can pull off a couple of victories this season,
however, Italy face three away trips this year including a daunting opening
game against Wales.
Prediction: 6th
Even with some heroic efforts, the Italians simply don’t have the star quality
needed to thrive at this level. The home encounter against Scotland is their
best chance of recording a win this year; however, Italy has proven often
enough that they can upset anyone on their day.
Scotland
It is difficult to pinpoint
the reason for Scotland’s dismal performances in recent Six Nations history. On
paper, the squad is peppered with star performers in the European game,
however, when the team comes together, they struggle to gel and crucially, they
struggle to score tries. Scott Johnson has added some much needed dynamism to
his side; however, he faces a testing tournament yet again, with few backing
the Scots to make much on an impact in the competition. If things click for Scotland,
they have a very abrasive pack of forwards with the likes of Ross Ford at
hooker, Jim Hamilton in the second row and David Denton at No.8. These three in
particular are fiery competitors and if they can contain their aggression
positively, they will be a real handful for other teams. The Scottish backs are
full of promise, with Stuart Hogg fresh from the Lions series in which he
featured as the youngest player in the squad; you have an outstanding natural
try scorer. His tries against England and Italy last season demonstrated his
ability to change direction quickly and speed off jinking around would-be
tacklers. Sean Maitland is another proven finisher, but these two speedsters
need quality possession from their forwards and clean ball from their
halfbacks. The versatile Greig Laidlaw wears the scrum-half jersey in the
opener at the Aviva Stadium against Ireland, while Duncan Weir takes the reins
at fly-half – an area where Scotland has been found wanting in recent years.
The Scottish game plan for the tournament will be fairly straightforward; they
have a reliable set piece and a hardworking set of forwards, but they need to
try and play some expansive rugby. If you watch the defences of Wales, Ireland
and England for instance, they will not be broken down easily by a few phases
of possession and then putting width on the ball. For Scotland to cause a few upsets
and avoid the wooden spoon, they must play positive rugby and give their young
outside backs the chance to thrive out wide.
Prediction: 5th
Key matches for Scotland are England at home and Italy away. If Scotland can
unsettle an England side in transition at Murrayfield early on, they could
create real problems for Lancaster’s men. The battle in Rome this year will be
fascinating, with both Italy and Scotland desperate to avoid the wooden spoon
and keen to assert themselves as serious European rugby forces.
Wales
This is a simple preview to
write; this year’s tournament is Wales’ to lose. After a phenomenal Lions
series which saw the majority of the Welsh national side prosper, and two Six
Nations victories in a row, Gatland’s men are looking for their third title in
succession. His selection is consistent, and despite two unconvincing autumn
international campaigns, Wales are a settled, well-organised and dynamic outfit.
In George North and Alex Cuthbert, there will be an abundance of tries. The two
gargantuan wingers have unnatural pace for their size and they crop up in
midfield to cause real problems for drifting defences. Leigh Halfpenny who recently
announced he is off to Toulon next season is an outstanding goal kicker, a
dangerous attacking threat and a rock at the back in defence. Rhys Priestland
may not set the world alight on his own, but he knows how to unlock defences.
If he can continue to manage games for a full 80 minutes then Wales should have
no problems throughout the tournament. The front row of Paul James, Richard
Hibbard and Adam Jones are a match for any pack in world rugby. Hibbard in
particular is a thrill to watch as his defence shows no regards for the
well-being of his body; his thunderous hits spur on the Millennium Stadium
crowd and keep the opposition on the back foot. It’s an embarrassment of riches
in the forwards, with Alun Wyn-Jones a master of the line-out and terrific
leader on the pitch and a back-row that carries tremendously and can bully
teams at the breakdown. When England were humiliated by Wales in Cardiff last
season, it was started by domination in the contact area. Dan Lydiate needs to
show his class again after some lacklustre performance in the Top 14, but on
his day he is one of the best tacklers in European rugby, scything opponents
down at will. , At open-side, Justin Tipuric starts the first game, but he is a
like-for-like replacement for captain Sam Warburton and both players are a
nuisance at the breakdown, securing turnovers and slowing opposition ball down.
Finally, Toby Faletau is a match for any No.8 in the competition, his ability
to peel off the back of the scrum and make huge inroads into the defensive
third is vital to Wales’ gain line success. He had a quiet autumn, but much is
expected of him this season.
Predicted Table
1)
Wales
2)
Ireland
3)
England
4)
France
5)
Scotland
6)
Italy
Top try scorer: George North
(Wales)
Top point scorer: Leigh
Halfpenny (Wales)
Who do you think will win
the 2014 RBS Six Nations? Comment below or tweet and follow @tom_dowler.
