After three rounds in this year’s Six Nations, England
are looking for their first Grand Slam since 2003 and Wales are the only other
side realistically able to challenge Stuart Lancaster’s side for the title. The
French are in disarray and the Irish are underperforming after peaking to early
in the first half of their opening 22-30 victory in Cardiff. Italy on the other
hand have has shown signs of genuine progression, while Scotland are slowly
getting back to winning ways with an unlikely 12-8 win over Ireland in the last
round.
Scotland v
Wales
Duncan Weir is set to start his first international game for Scotland
The Scots are
currently in a phase of transition and will take great confidence from their
narrow 12-8 win against Ireland. They barely touched the ball and made a
staggering 128 tackles, a monumental effort that kept the misfiring Irish
backline at bay. It wasn’t an enjoyable
match to watch, but victories in that manner forge a team spirit and inspire a
side to believe there are better performances to come. If Scotland can continue
their defensive endeavours and add some cutting-edge to their attacking game,
they could challenge Wales at Murrayfield.
The Scottish
game plan is simple; they send their big forwards in Jim Hamilton, Richie Gray
and others round the side of a ruck or contact area to win the initial
collision. This is an easy way to create a forward platform; the trouble is
that they lack the cutting edge to score when they make it into an opponent’s
22. Both of their tries against England were on the break and they rarely score
from strike-moves or from sustained pressure. Their set-piece is fairly reliable,
and they have a good goal-kicker in Craig Laidlaw, Welsh errors at breakdowns
resulting in penalties will be punished.
Duncan Weir
starts at fly-half for Scotland, in what will be the Glasgow playmaker’s first
start for his country. His inexperience will be an area for Wales to target as he
will be severely tested in defence by the likes of Jamie Roberts on the crash
ball. This is a big game for Scotland, their lack of a quality, experienced No.10
may prove costly against Wales
The Welsh got
off to a slow start at home to Ireland in the tournament. However, they have steadily found their feet.
Injuries have played their part to halt last year’s Grand Slam momentum;
luckily, their strike runners in Alex Cuthbert and George North have once again
found their try-scoring form.
Alun Wyn-Jones
comes back in to the second-row, his influence has been greatly missed, the
Welsh line-out has looked weak without him and he is an important player around
the pitch with ball carries and work rate in defence.
Ryan Jones, Sam
Warburton and Toby Faletau make up a very effective back-row. Jones is a great
option in the line-out and Warburton is a tremendous operator at the breakdown.
He will need to prevent the Scots from slowing down their ball when in their 22.
Faletau on the other hand is a very powerful ball-carrier and has an
outstanding work-rate in defence, he will need to chop down Scotland’s big
carriers and prevent them from gaining forward momentum.
Prediction: Wales by 10, the Scots are improving - however,
the Welsh are more likely to finish off their scoring chances and are a much
more developed side compared to their opposition. The Scots will fight bravely,
but they will not be able to keep within touching distance of Wales if they earn
the same amount of possession as Ireland did in the last round.
Ireland v
France
Paddy Jackson is retained at fly-half despite a poor performance against Scotland in the last round.
Many pundits
backed either Ireland or France at the start of the tournament to take home
this year’s trophy. However, both teams have underperformed. Ireland started
promisingly with a 22-30 win in Cardiff, the first half was one of the finest
40 minutes many have ever seen in a Six Nations tournament. They completely
blew the Welsh away with accurate finishing and ferocious defending. The French
however, are hapless at the moment, after a devastating loss to Italy and two
further defeats to Wales and England, the squad which is full of outstanding
potential and flair seem lost.
Philippe
Saint-Andre’s days in charge seem to be dwindling week-by-week, the French Top
14 does not promote home grown talent whatsoever, with the majority of crucial
roles filled by foreign imports. Perhaps this needs to change for French
international rugby to thrive again, but it seems a good excuse for the mean
time. A squad with the likes of Wesley Fofana, Yoann Huget, Morgan Parra, Thierry
Dusetoir and Louis Picamoles, should not be struggling at the bottom of the
table after three rounds of matches.
Paddy Jackson
had a poor game against Scotland in the last round however; he is trusted with
the starting fly-half position once again, with Ronan O’Gara cast to the bench,
hinting at an end to ROG’s distinguished career. Jackson needs to get the
back-line firing, against the Scots, Ireland had an unimaginable amount of possession,
but they could not convert territory in to points. Added to this, Jackson had
an off day with the boot, missing two simple chances from short-range. This
cost his side dearly. Also, the Irish lack some defensive guile without the
injured Gordon D’Arcy, this could be an area for the French to target with the
inexperienced Luke Marshall at inside-centre.
Bizarrely,
Frederick Michalak once again starts at fly-half; I cannot understand why Philippe
Saint-Andre continues to trust such a mercurial player in the pivotal position
he does not play in regularly for his club, Toulon. The former Toulouse superstar
has lacked any form of composure and has struggled to get his outstanding back
line moving. Thankfully, Saint-Andre has decided to give Morgan Parra a chance
again at scrum-half; Clermont’s ‘petit-general’
is one of the best scrum-halves in Europe, how he was on the bench for the
opening two rounds confounds belief. If these two don’t click in their starting
positions, they should switch as Parra has been known to do a great job at
fly-half.
The battle at
the breakdown will be an exciting one, with Thierry Dusetoir and Louis Picamoles
against the likes of Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip, there is a thrilling blend
of sheer power and counter-rucking nous. The battle in the scrum should be
fairly even, neither side has really established themselves in the set-piece in
this year’s tournament.
Prediction: Ireland by 6 points The French have
been too inconsistent this season, they will face a tough task in Dublin. The
Irish seem to be in a better place mentally, having won their opening match
against Wales; however, the French are heading towards their first wooden spoon
in the tournament.
England v
Italy
Mako Vuinipola is to make his first start for England against Italy on Sunday
Stuart Lancaster
has found a winning formula, and his side have gone from strength-to-strength
under his leadership. This match should not be too much of a challenge for his
side, captained by Chris Robshaw. However, it is an opportunity to try a few
different combinations with the 2015 Rugby World Cup in mind.
Owen Farrell’s
injury gives Toby Flood a chance to come back in to the fly-half shirt and he
needs a big performance to make it his own again. Farrell has been exceptional from
the kicking tee and is learning how to manage the full 80 minutes as each game
passes. Danny Care has waited patiently
for a re-call to the starting line-up, he has been one of the most consistent
performers in the Aviva Premiership and he will be eager to oust Ben Youngs
from the starting position. Care takes a few more risks than his competitor
Youngs, as he tends to look for quick-taps from penalties or free-kicks and is
able to up the tempo whenever he sees the opportunity to attack.
Chris Ashton
needs a big performance, he nearly lost his place to an experimental move to
put Manu Tuilagi on the wing, the Saracens wing needs to get on the score-sheet
again and he will be looking to prove his defensive capabilities to the many
doubting critics who have questioned him over the past two weeks.
Mako Vunipola
has made plenty of impact with ball in hand and in the set-piece from the bench
in the opening rounds, and he is rightly rewarded with his first international
start this weekend. Joe Marler has been doing a fantastic job, but it is a fine
opportunity for Vunipola to test himself against a traditionally strong Italian
pack.
James Haskell
returns on the blind-side flank after a poor performance from Courtney Lawes in
his non-accustomed position. The Wasps back-row forward will need to halt
Sergio Parisse in his tracks, his knowledge of the position will be vital to
stopping an important attacking threat.
Italy made
headlines in the opening round with a 23-18 shock victory against France;
however, since then, they have struggled. They fell to an embarrassing 34-10
loss to Scotland and then were outmuscled by Wales at home losing 9-26.
Unfortunately, their talisman, Sergio Parisse was absent through suspension,
but with his return, he will provide the Italians with some strong carries from
the base of the scrum and will tackle his heart out for the Azzurri.
Italy’s fly-half
Luciano Orquera was world class against France, however, he needs to add
consistency to his game. He will face Toby Flood at Twickenham on Sunday, a man
who is desperate to re-ignite his England career, so he will have to be on top
of his game. Orquera demonstrated his ability to control a high-pressure match
against the French, his tactical kicking was excellent and he knew when to take
a drop-goal and keep the scoreboard ticking over.
Andrea Masi has
impressed at Wasps this season, and the full-back provides a wealth of
experience to Italy’s backline. He is an impressive counter-attacker and is
assured under the high ball. England’s half-backs will be keen to test his
skills in the early exchanges, Stuart Lancaster’s side are becoming very
effective kick-chasers, and this tactic puts a lot of pressure on the opposition
and takes something special to break through.
Martin
Castrogiovanni continues to be a nuisance in the scrum, the destructive
scrummager will earn his 95th cap this weekend, but the Leicester
prop still has plenty to give on the international stage. This will be a big
test for Mako Vunipola; the Italian scrum is always a powerful weapon, it is
important for England to win the first few penalties to get on the right side
of the referee’s whistle.
Prediction: England by 20 points - England’s
fitness and quality from the Bench will prove too much for the Italians. Expect
a tight first half, but the game should open up in the second half
Have you got any thoughts or comments? Do you agree
with my predictions? Do you think there will be an big upsets this weekend?
Comment below or tweet your thoughts to @tommyd91
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